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UK - Death Trends for Malignant Neoplasms, Ages 15-44

Analysis of Individual Causes

UK Cause of Death Project

Update Date: October - 2023

Carlos Alegria


Download full report (pdf)   PDF Report


Navigation to related reports:

UK - Death and Disability Trends for Cardiovascular Diseases, Ages 15-44
UK - Death Trends for the Cardiovascular System - Analysis of Individual Causes, Ages 15-44
UK - Death and Disability Trends from Malignant Neoplasms, Ages 15-44



Data:

Country: UK

Period: Yearly data from 2010 to 2022.

Cause of Death Data
The data used in this analysis is the number of deaths that occurred in England and Wales between 2010 and 2022, by underlying cause code (ICD-10), sex, and age group (up to 90+). The source is the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). The direct links to the mortality data by cause for 2010 to 2021 and 2022 are listed below:

Link to the ONS 2022 data source: Death occurrences by sex, five year age group and underlying cause (ICD-10 code) England and Wales: 2022

Link to the ONS 2010-2021 data source: Death occurrences by sex, five year age group and underlying cause (ICD-10 code) England and Wales: 2010-2021

UK Monthly Registered Deaths (All cause) Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales

Information regarding ONS cause of death statistics:

  • When analysing the ONS data for cause of death we noticed that there are discrepancies between the number of deaths which have a cause of death and the number of registered deaths for a year. This is particularly the case for deaths in 2022 (the most recent year) and younger individuals where there are significant discrepancies between both these datasets.
  • To estimate the trends in death rates for different causes, we use Adjusted Deaths (Adj-deaths) which refers to the deaths from a particular cause or range of causes adjusted by the ratio of registered deaths to deaths by all causes. pease refer to the full report above, for more detailed information.



Summary


In this study we investigate the UK trends in death rates for malignant neoplasms for individuals aged 15 to 44 by computing excess death rates, which are the difference between observed deaths rates and a given baseline for expected death rates. We measure and compare changes in the behaviour of mortality patterns before the Covid-19 pandemic with the post-pandemic period, for deaths with attributed to malignant neoplasms.
We show a large increase in mortality due malignant neoplasms that started in 2021 and accelerated substantially in 2022. The increase in excess deaths in 2022, is highly statistically significant (extreme event). The results indicate that from late 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased malignant neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the UK.
We also investigate the equivalent trends in deaths from individual ICD10 codes within malignant neoplasms (C00 to C99 codes). Within the full report, we analyse individually the 10 most common causes for malignant neoplasm deaths, and some causes of particular interest that are gender specific.
This webpage is only a short sample of the full report where we expose the anaysis of some malignant neoplasms of interest. For a more detailed and extensive investigation please refer to the full report.

Analysis of some individual malignant neoplasms:

Malignant neoplasms of breast.

Malignant neoplasms without specification of site.

Malignant neoplasms of skin.

Malignant neoplasms of colon.

Malignant neoplasms of pancreas.

Malignant neoplasms of brain.



BreastWithout site specificationColonSkinPancreas
Individual Malignant Neoplasms
Project briefs (pdfs) for individuals malignant neoplasm death analysis


Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Breast for ages 15-44

In this section we investigate the trends in death rates for ICD10 code C50 (malignant neoplasm of breast), which represents 17.2% of all malignant neoplasm deaths in 2019 for 15 to 44 year-olds in the UK. This analysis investigates the absolute trends in adjusted deaths for a single ICD10 code. We also investigate the fraction of deaths attributable to ICD10 code C50 versus deaths from all other causes.
The methdology for establishing the baseline is described in full report.


Adjusted Death Rates and Deaths from Malignant Neoplasms of Breast

The Figures below show yearly adjusted deaths for malignant neoplasms of the breast for females in England and Wales. The red dashed line shows the average from 2010 to 2019. The dotted line shows the 2015-2019 average death rate. Left: Adj-Deaths per 100,000. Right: Adj-Deaths (number).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_2

Summary:

  • We can observe that death rates per year from malignant neoplasms of the breast have been trending lower from 2010 to 2019, with a significant downward slope. In 2010 the deaths rate was 4.9 per 100,000, in 2019 it was around 4 per 100,000, a 18.4% drop.
  • The death rate dropped in 2020 to about 3.8 per 100,000 and then rose to 4.2 per 100,000 in 2021.
    In 2022 the death rate increased again to about 4.9 per 100,000, a level that is similar to that observed in 2010.
    The death rate in 2022 was about 0.9 deaths per 100,000 above the death rate in 2019.


Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Breast

In the Figure (left) below we can observe that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of the breast were -5% in 2020, then rose to about 12% in 2021 and about 28% in 2022. In terms of statistical significance of the excess deaths, we observe from the Figure (right) that for breast cancers, the Z-score in 2020 was only about -2, which is not a strong negative signal but perhaps something worth investigating in further detail. We speculate that perhaps the Covid-19 pandemic measures, lifestyle changes or misclassification of breast cancer deaths as Covid-19 deaths led to fewer breast cancer deaths.
When looking at changes in the fraction of all deaths attributed to breast cancers, we observe that breast cancer rates were about 12% lower, with a -4 Z-score which points to a strong effect and corroborates the previous observations.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that the excess deaths rates from malignant breast neoplasms were -5% in 2020, then rose to about +12% in 2021 and about +28% in 2022.
  • In 2021, the Z-score for adjusted death rates was close to 4.0 which is a strong signal. In 2022 the Z-score rose to about 9.8, which is a very strong signal and indicates that the excess deaths from breast cancers are statistically significant deviations from the 2010-2019 trend.
  • These signals are corroborated by similar findings when measuring rises in the fraction of deaths from malignant neoplasms of the breast relative to all other deaths with classified causes (see full report above).





Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms Without Site Specification for ages 15-44

In this section we investigate the trends in death rates for ICD10 code C80 (Malignant neoplasm without specification of site), which represents 4.1% of all malignant neoplasm deaths in 2019 for 15 to 44 year-olds in the UK. This analysis investigates the absolute trends in adjusted deaths for a single ICD10 code. We also investigate the fraction of deaths attributable to ICD10 code C80 versus deaths from all other causes. The methdology for establishing the baseline is described in full report.


Adjusted Death Rates and Deaths from Malignant Neoplasms Without Specification of Site

The Figures below show yearly adjusted deaths for malignant neoplasms without specification of site in England and Wales. The red dashed line shows the average from 2010 to 2019. The dotted line shows the 2015-2019 average death rate. Left: Adj-Deaths per 100,000. Right: Adj-Deaths (number).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_2

Summary:

  • We can observe that death rates per year from malignant neoplasms without specification of site have been trending lower from 2010 to 2019, with a significant downward slope. In 2010 the deaths rate was about 0.75 per 100,000, in 2019 it was around 0.52 per 100,000, a 30.7% reduction.
  • The death rate in 2020 remained almost unchanged at 0.55 per 100,000.
    In 2021 the death rate from malignant neoplasms without specification of site rose to close to 0.7 per 100,000.
    In 2022 the death rate increased again to about 0.79 per 100,000, a level higher than that of 2010.


Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms Without Specification of Site

In the Figure (left) below we can observe that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms without specification of site were close to zero in 2020, then rose to about +32% in 2021 and about +59% in 2022. In terms of statistical significance of the excess deaths, we observe from the Figure (right) below that for cancers without specification of site, in 2020 the Z-score for adjusted death rates was low, which point to low statistical significance. In 2021 the Z-score was about 3.1, which is a strong signal in statistical terms. In 2022 the Z-score was close to 6, which is a very strong signal and indicates that the excess deaths from these cancers are statistically significant deviations from the 2010-2019 trend.

When looking at changes in the fraction of all deaths attributed to cancers without specification of site, we observe that the fraction of deaths from these cancers were slightly below trend in 2020 and at 13% above trend for 2021 (with low statistical significance). In 2022 however, the fraction of deaths for these cancers jumped about 42%, with a Z-score of above 4, indicating very high statistical significance. It appears that deaths from cancers without specification of site as a fraction of all deaths deviated significantly from prior trends in 2022.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms without specification of site were close to zero in 2020, then rose to about +32% in 2021 and about +59% in 2022.
  • The excess mortality from malignant neoplasm without specification of site in 2021 and 2022 are highly statistically significant with Z-scores of 3.1 and close to 6, respectively. These are very strong signals, in particular for 2022.
  • These signals are corroborated by similar findings when measuring rises in the fraction of deaths from malignant neoplasms without specification of site relative to all other deaths with classified causes (see full report above).

Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms Without Site Specification for Males and Females

We now compare excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms without site specification for males and females aged 15-44, as shown in the Figure below.
We observe that in 2020 both males and females showed no noticeable excess mortality, with respective Z-scores close to zero (low statistical significance). However, in 2021 women suffered much worse outcomes than men, with women experiencing about 60% deviation from trend, compared to about 10% for men. In 2021 the signal strength for men was weak (with a Z-score below 1) but for women the deviation from trend had very high statistical significance (with a Z-score close to 5), as shown in the Figure (right).
In 2022 the signal strengths for both women and men were very strong (with a Z-score of above 4), with the deviation from trend of being 55% for women and 60% for men.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_2

Summary:

  • When comparing outcomes for men and women, we observe that both had no significant rise in deaths from malignant neoplasms witout specification of site in 2020.
  • In 2021, women suffered worse outcomes than men, with men experiencing a 10% deviation from trend, compared to about 60% for women.
  • In 2022, both men and women suffered significant rises in these types of cancer, with men experiencing a 60% deviation from trend, compared to about 55% for women.
  • Malignant neoplasms without specification of site appear to have accelerated in 2022 for both males and females. However, an interesting observation is that these cancers also exploded earlier in 2021 for women, which we believe should also be subject to further research by medical doctors.
  • Malignant neoplasms without specification of site are also interesting to investigate because they could be associated with turbo cancers that once identified are already metastasised over different body systems. Notice that these are younger individuals (15-44) that do not undergo routine cancer screenings.






Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of skin for ages 15-44

In this section we investigate the trends in death rates for ICD10 code C43 (Malignant neoplasm of skin), which represents only 3.0% of all malignant neoplasm deaths in 2019 for 15 to 44 year-olds in the UK. This analysis investigates the absolute trends in adjusted deaths for a single ICD10 code. We also investigate the fraction of deaths attributable to ICD10 code C43 versus deaths from all other causes. The methdology for establishing the baseline is described in full report.


Adjusted Death Rates and Deaths from Malignant Neoplasms of skin

The Figures below show yearly adjusted deaths for malignant neoplasms of skin in England and Wales. The red dashed line shows the average from 2010 to 2019. The dotted line shows the 2015-2019 average death rate. Left: Adj-Deaths per 100,000. Right: Adj-Deaths (number).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_2

Summary:

  • We can observe that death rates per year from malignant neoplasms of the skin have been trending lower from 2010 to 2019. In 2010 the deaths rate was about 0.8 per 100,000, in 2019 it was around 0.4 per 100,000, a 50% reduction.
  • The death rate dropped slightly in 2020 to 0.39 per 100,000 and then rose slightly to 0.41 per 100,000 in 2021.
  • In 2022 the death rate jumped to about 0.53 per 100,000.


Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Skin

In the Figure below (left) we can observe that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of skin were about zero in 2020, +20% in 2021, and about +75% in 2022. In terms of statistical significance of the excess deaths, we observe from the Figure (right) that for cancers of skin, in 2020 the Z-score for adjusted death rates was zero. In 2021 the Z-score was close to 2.2, which is a weak signal in statistical terms. In 2022 the Z-score was above 8, which is a very strong signal and indicates that the excess deaths from skin cancers are statistically significant deviations from the 2010-2019 trend.

When looking at changes in the fraction of all deaths attributed to cancers of skin, we observe that the fraction of deaths for these cancers were below trend in 2020 and slightly above trend 2021 (but with low statistical significance). In 2022 however, the fraction of deaths for these cancers jumped about 52%, with a Z-score close to 6, indicating very high statistical significance. It appears that cancers of the skin as a fraction of all deaths deviated significantly from prior trends in 2022.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of skin were about zero in 2020, +20% in 2021, and about +75% in 2022.
  • In 2021 the Z-score was close to 2.2, which is a signal in statistical terms, which merrits a note.
  • In 2022 the Z-score was above 8, which is a very strong signal.
  • These signals are corroborated by similar findings when measuring rises in the fraction of deaths from malignant neoplasms of the skin relative to all other deaths with classified causes (see full report above).

Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Skin for Males and Females

We now compare excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of skin for males and females aged 15-44, as shown in the Figure below.
When comparing excess death rates attributed to malignant neoplasms of skin for males and females, shown in the Figure below (left), we observe that in 2020, 2021 females showed no noticeable excess mortality, with respective Z-scores close to zero (low statistical significance). In 2022 however, women experienced about +35% deviation from trend with high statistical significance (with a Z-score around 3).

Men suffered rising excess death rates from malignant neoplasms of the skin of about 15% in 2020 and 35% in 2021. The signal strength for men in 2020 was weak (with a Z-score about to 1.5), and in 2021 the signal was strong enough to warrant further investigation (with a Z-score about to 3), as shown in the Figure (right). In 2022 the signal strength for men was very strong (with a Z-score close to 11), with the deviation from trend of being close to 120%.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_2

Summary:

  • We observe that men experienced a small rise in the excess death rate from malignant neoplasms of the skin in 2020, albeit not statistically significant. For women the excess death rate dropped in 2020.
  • In 2021, men suffered worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing a 35% deviation from trend, compared to about 5% for women.
  • In 2022, men suffered much worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing a 120% deviation from trend, compared to about 35% for women.
  • Further investigation is needed to understand the factors contributing to this difference in malignant cancers of the skin for males and females.






Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Colon for ages 15-44

In this section we investigate the trends in death rates for ICD10 code C18 (Malignant neoplasm of colon), which represents 5.4% of all malignant neoplasm deaths in 2019 for 15 to 44 year-olds in the UK. This analysis investigates the absolute trends in adjusted deaths for a single ICD10 code. We also investigate the fraction of deaths attributable to ICD10 code C18 versus deaths from all other causes.
The methdology for establishing the baseline is described in full report.


Adjusted Death Rates and Deaths from Malignant Neoplasms of Colon

The Figures below show yearly adjusted deaths for malignant neoplasms of colon in England and Wales. The red dashed line shows the average from 2010 to 2019. The dotted line shows the 2015-2019 average death rate. Left: Adj-Deaths per 100,000. Right: Adj-Deaths (number).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_2

Summary:

  • We can observe that death rates per year from malignant neoplasms of colon have been trending higher from 2010 to 2019, with a significant upward slope. In 2010 the deaths rate was about 0.6 per 100,000, in 2019 it was around 0.85 per 100,000, a 41.7% rise.
  • We believe that the pattern of rising death rates from colon cancers prior to 2020 is already worth investigating on its own merit.
  • The death rate dropped slightly in 2020 to about 0.8 per 100,000.
  • In 2021 the death rate from malignant neoplasms rose to 1 per 100,000 and in 2022 it increased again to 1.4 per 100,000.


Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Colon

In the Figure below (left) we can observe that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of the colon were -5% in 2020, then rose to about +15% in 2021 and about +50% in 2022. In terms of statistical significance of the excess deaths, we observe from the Figure (right) that for colon cancers, in 2020 the Z-score for adjusted death rates was low, which point to low statistical significance. In 2021 the Z-score was about 2, which is a weak signal in statistical terms. In 2022 the Z-score was above 7, which is a very strong signal and indicates that the excess deaths from colon cancers are statistically significant deviations from the 2010-2019 trend.

When looking at changes in the fraction of all deaths attributed to colon cancers, we observe that the fraction of deaths for these cancers were about 10% below trend in 2020 and at trend for 2021. In 2022 however, the fraction of deaths for these cancers jumped about 37%, with a Z-score of above 7, indicating very high statistical significance. It appears that colon cancers as a fraction of all deaths deviated significantly from prior trends in 2022.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of the colon were -5% in 2020, then rose to about +15% in 2021 and about +50% in 2022.
  • The excess mortality from malignant neoplasms of the colon in 2021 was already a statistically significant signal with Z-scores of about 2.
  • In 2022 the signal was very strong with a Z-score above 7, indicating very high statistical significance.

Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Colon for Males and Females

When comparing excess death rates attributed to malignant neoplasms of the colon for males and females, shown in the Figure below, we observe that in 2020 both males and females showed no noticeable excess mortality, with respective Z-scores close or above -1 (low statistical significance).
In both 2021 and 2022 men suffered much worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing about 19.5% and 55% deviations from trend in 2021 and 2022 respectively, compared to about 10% and 41% for women.
In 2021 the signal strength for men was weak (with a Z-score of 2.1) and for women the deviation from trend had low statistical significance (with a Z-score of 1.1), as shown in the Figure (right). In 2022 the signal strength for men was very strong (with a Z-score of 6.4) but for women the deviation from trend shows low statistical significance (with a Z-score of 5), as shown in the Figure (right).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_2

Summary:

  • When comparing outcomes for men and women, we observe that both had a small drop in excess deaths from malignant neoplasms of the colon in 2020, albeit with no statistical significance.
  • In 2021, men suffered worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing a 19.5% deviation from trend, compared to about 10% for women.
  • In 2022, men suffered worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing a 55% deviation from trend, compared to about 41% for women.






Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Pancreas for ages 15-44

In this section we investigate the trends in death rates for ICD10 code C25 (Malignant neoplasm of pancreas), which represents only 3.1% of all malignant neoplasm deaths in 2019 for 15 to 44 year-olds in the UK. This analysis investigates the absolute trends in adjusted deaths for a single ICD10 code. We also investigate the fraction of deaths attributable to ICD10 code C25 versus deaths from all other causes.


Adjusted Death Rates and Deaths from Malignant Neoplasms of Pancreas

The Figures below show yearly adjusted deaths for malignant neoplasms of pancreas in England and Wales. The red dashed line shows the average from 2010 to 2019. The dotted line shows the 2015-2019 average death rate. Left: Adj-Deaths per 100,000. Right: Adj-Deaths (number).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that yearly death rates from malignant neoplasms of the pancreas have been trending slightly lower from 2010 to 2019. In 2010 the deaths rate was about 0.38 per 100,000, in 2019 it was around 0.35 per 100,000, a 7.9% reduction.
  • The death rate dropped slightly in 2020 remained almost unchanged at 0.38 per 100,000.
  • In 2021 the death rate from malignant neoplasms of the pancreas rose to 0.4 per 100,000.
  • In 2022 the death rate jumped to about to 0.55 per 100,000, a level higher than that of 2010.


Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Pancreas

In the Figure below (left) we can observe that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of pancreas were close to zero in 2020, then rose to about +20% in 2021 and about +70% in 2022. In terms of statistical significance of the excess deaths, we observe from the Figure (right) that for cancers of pancreas, in 2020 the Z-score for adjusted death rates was low, which point to low statistical significance. In 2021 the Z-score was close to 2, which is a weak signal in statistical terms. In 2022 the Z-score was 6, which is a very strong signal and indicates that the excess deaths from cancers of the pancreas are statistically significant deviations from the 2010-2019 trend.

When looking at changes in the fraction of all deaths attributed to cancers of pancreas, we observe that the fraction of deaths for these cancers were close to trend in 2020 and 2021 (slightly above trend but with low statistical significance). In 2022 however, the fraction of deaths for these cancers jumped about 55%, with a Z-score of above 4, indicating very high statistical significance. It appears that pancreas cancers as a fraction of all deaths deviated significantly from prior trends in 2022.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of pancreas were close to zero in 2020, then rose to about +20% in 2021 and about +70% in 2022.
  • The excess mortality from malignant neoplasms of the pancreas in 2021 was already a statistically significant signal with Z-scores of about 2.
  • In 2022 the signal was very strong with a Z-score above 6, indicating very high statistical significance.

Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Pancreas for Males and Females

We now compare excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of pancreas for males and females aged 15-44, as shown in the Figure below.
When comparing excess death rates attributed to malignant neoplasms of pancreas for males and females, shown in the Figure below, we observe that in 2020 both males and females showed no noticeable excess mortality, with respective Z-scores close to zero (low statistical significance).
In 2021 men suffered much worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing about 40% deviation from trend, compared to about -5% for women. In 2021 the signal strength for men was strong enough to warrant further investigation (with a Z-score close to 2.5) but for women the deviation from trend was statistically insignificant (with a Z-score close to zero), as shown in the Figure (right). In 2022 the signal strengths for both men and women were strong (with a Z-score of above 3), with the deviation from trend of being 60% for men and 85% for women.

Malignant neoplasms of the pancreas appear to have accelerated in 2022 for both males and females. However, an interesting observation is that these cancers also started rising in 2021 for men, which we believe should also be subject to further research by medical doctors.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_2

Summary:

  • When comparing outcomes for men and women, we observe that both had neglegible excess death rates from malignant neoplasms of the pancreas in 2020.
  • In 2021, men suffered worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing a 40% deviation from trend, compared to about -5% for women.
  • In 2022, both men and women suffered bad outcomes, with men experiencing a 60% deviation from trend, compared to about 80% for women.
  • Further investigation is needed to understand the factors contributing to this difference in malignant cancers of the pancreas for males and females.






Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Brain for ages 15-44

In this section we investigate the trends in death rates for ICD10 code C71 (Malignant neoplasm of brain), which represents 10.2% of all malignant neoplasm deaths in 2019 for 15 to 44 year-olds in the UK (2nd most common). This analysis investigates the absolute trends in adjusted deaths for a single ICD10 code. We also investigate the fraction of deaths attributable to ICD10 code C71 versus deaths from all other causes.


Adjusted Death Rates and Deaths from Malignant Neoplasms of Brain

The Figures below show yearly adjusted deaths for malignant neoplasms of brain in England and Wales. The red dashed line shows the average from 2010 to 2019. The dotted line shows the 2015-2019 average death rate. Left: Adj-Deaths per 100,000. Right: Adj-Deaths (number).

plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig1_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that death rates per year from malignant neoplasms of the brain have been stable from 2010 to 2019, at a value of about 1.4 deaths per 100,000.
  • The death rate did not deviate significantly from trend in both 2020 and 2021.
  • In 2022 the death rate increased again to about 1.8 per 100,000.


Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Brain

In Figure below (left) we can observe that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of the brain were -7% in 2020, then rose to about +1.5% in 2021, and about 25% in 2022. In terms of statistical significance of the excess deaths, we observe from Figure (right) that for brain cancers, in 2020 and 2021, the Z-scores for adjusted death rates were low, which point to low statistical significance. In 2022 the Z-score rose to about 4, which is a strong signal and indicates that the excess deaths from brain cancers are statistically significant deviations from the 2010-2019 trend.

When looking at changes in the fraction of all deaths attributed to brain cancers, we observe that the fraction of deaths for these cancers was about 12% below trend in both in 2020 and 2021 (with a negative Z-score indicating low statistical significance). In 2022, however, the fraction of deaths for these cancers jumped about 14%, with a Z-score of about 2, also indicating low statistical significance. It appears that brain cancers as a fraction of all deaths did not deviate significantly from prior trends.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig3_2

Summary:

  • Our analysis shows that the excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of the brain were -7% in 2020, then rose to about +1.5% in 2021 and about +25% in 2022.
  • The excess mortality from malignant neoplasms of the brain in 2021 was not statistically significant.
  • In 2022 the signal was very strong with a Z-score close to 4, indicating high statistical significance.

Analysis of Excess Adjusted Death Rates from Malignant Neoplasms of Brain for Males and Females

We now compare excess deaths rates from malignant neoplasms of brain for males and females aged 15-44, as shown in the Figure below.
When comparing excess death rates attributed to malignant neoplasms of the brain for males and females, we observe that in 2020 and 2021 both males and females showed no noticeable excess mortality, with respective Z-scores close or below 1 (low statistical significance).
In 2022 men suffered much worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing about 35% deviation from trend, compared to about 12% for women. The signal strength for men was very strong (with a Z-score of 4.1) but for women the deviation from trend shows low statistical significance (with a Z-score of 1.4).

Malignant neoplasms of the brain appear to impact males predominantly, which we believe should be subject to further research by medical doctors.

plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_1
plot_malignant_1544_Fig4_2

Summary:

  • When comparing outcomes for men and women, we observe that both had neglegible excess death rates from malignant neoplasms of the brain in 2020 and 2021.
  • In 2022, men suffered worse outcomes than women, with men experiencing a 35% deviation from trend, compared to about 12% for women.
  • Further investigation is needed to understand the factors contributing to this difference in malignant cancers of the brain for males and females.






Overview of Selected Malignant Neoplasms

The chart below shows an overview of the excess mortality for selected malignant neoplasms, which are analysed in detail in the full report.

plot_Cardio_ObservationsFigure



Observations

  • The analysis presented above for the different individual malignant neoplasms were only a sample of those performed within the full report. The full report contains a table that summarises the trends in death rates for the most common individual types of malignant neoplasms, table 2, which is the basis for some of the patterns we describe below:

  • Breast Cancer dominates in women.
    The most common cause of cancer is that of the breast which had a 1.06 per 100,000 excess death rate in 2022, represents about 25% of the total excess death rate (of 4.24 per 100,000) in 2022 for malignant neoplasms in women. Other cancers that most contributed to excess death rates in women were cancer of the colon (with 0.37 per 100,000 excess death rate in 2022) and cancer of the cervix uteri (with 0.34 per 100,000 excess death rate in 2022).
  • Men more impacted than women.
    The results in Table 2 show that men saw a disproportionate rise in malignant neoplasm deaths when compared to women. We also observe that for men there is no dominant cancer (such as breast cancer in women) which means that the deaths in men are spread out among a variety of cancers. Of the 5.21 excess deaths per 100,000 in 2022, the cancers that most contributed were brain cancers (0.6 per 100,000 rise), colon cancers (0.51 per 100,000 rise) and stomach cancers (0.5 per 100,000). These three cancers accounted for 30.9% of the rise in death rates from malignant neoplasms in men in 2022.
    Another cancer type that is noticeable is the rise in skin cancers in men that was 118% in 2022. Even though these cancers do not account for a large proportion of all cancers, it’s rise from prior trends is noteworthy.
  • Cancers without specification of site are exploding ("turbo cancers"?).
    Another observation that we find is of interest for further investigation by medical professionals is the rise in cancers without the specification of site. These cancers saw very large rise in both women (in 2021 and 2022) and men (in 2022) and were likely metastasized already once they were identified. As the individuals refer to younger individuals who do not require early screening, these cancers were likely of rapid growth.
  • Digestive tract.
    The results in Table 2 show that some cancers saw explosive changes in 2021 and 2022 relative to the 2010-2019 trend. Of particular notice are cancers of the colon (C18), stomach (C16) and esophagus (C15). These cancers related to the digestive tract appear to have risen substantially in importance, and we also notice that they seem to be affecting men in a disproportionate manner.
  • Cancer of the pancreas.
    These cancers saw very large rise in both women (in 2022) and men (in both 2021 and 2022). Why these cancers rose so dramatically and why they rose first in men than women is one of the questions that we believe warrants investigation.

  • The observations above are a first attempt to bring out some patterns that are observed in trends in malignant neoplasms post 2020. We hope that medical doctors and specialised researchers perform further investigations based upon these (and other) insights that our data analysis provides.